To double or not to double. If you're talking population, that's the question of the moment for Loudoun County's Board of Supervisors. Loudoun is well known as the fastest growing county in the nation, but it could soon outdo itself, if plans currently before the County are approved.

On September 1 developers submitted an unprecedented 20 applications (dubbed CPAMs) which could add 42,000 residential units to the County. Taken together with the roughly 40,000 units already approved but not yet built, Supervisors are contemplating a doubling of the County's population. On October 14, County staff recommended that only three of the applications be accepted for further review, but decisions on which projects will move forward won't be made until October 25 and November 1.

The proposals arrive against a backdrop of simmering controversy over what role local government should play in the area's explosive growth. Critics argue that the current rate of growth is simply unsustainable in terms of traffic, taxes, and the other qualities of life that have made Loudoun County so appealing to new residents. Proponents argue that the plans are a pragmatic reflection of the changing times. The intensity of the debate, and the preponderance of construction equipment and lengthening commutes has many wondering what will become of Loudoun's famed tranquility.

The current uproar centers largely over a swath of land stretching from Leesburg to the Prince William County line, between Rte 15 and Dulles Airport. The area has been designated as a "transition area" between the County's more populated east and still largely rural west. Some members of the Board have eyed this area for a host of new projects. Earlier this year, the Board approved public sewer and water utilities for the area, a move that makes the large scale developments now under consideration possible. Shortly thereafter, the Board proposed that the Western Transportation Corridor be put back on County plans. That road would slice through existing neighborhoods such as Stone Ridge and Potomac Station, and also provide access to Rte 50, Rte 7, and the Dulles Greenway for many of the projects now under consideration.

"It appears that developers are running the county and that is just plain wrong," noted Susan Buckley, a Sterling resident who founded the Eastern Loudoun Schools Association. Others see it differently.

What Loudoun County needs, they argue, is more commercial development to offset the costs of residential growth. Supervisor Stephen Snow (R–Dulles) has been a vocal advocate for this position, and an animated character in the local land use scene. He gained particular notoriety by urging citizens questioning development plans to leave the area. "If you don't like what we are going to do, then there's other places - Canada and other places - you might enjoy" (Washington Post, Thursday, October 7, 2004; Page B04). Supervisor Stephen Snow did not return calls for comment by press time.

The attempt to resurrect an outer beltway narrowly failed, but the controversy over the fate of the transition area has not. More recently, the Rt 50 Gateway Taskforce, formed by Snow to look at land use and roadway changes along Rt 50, has been sharply criticized by conservationists. They point out that Snow appointed developers to head each section committee of the Taskforce.

"The very people seeking to increase the number of houses that can be built [via the CPAMs] have been appointed to lead these government sponsored bodies," noted Ed Gorski, of the Piedmont Environmental Council.

Citizen agitation coalesced into a loose coalition of groups calling themselves the Campaign for Loudoun's Future. The group hosted a press conference on October 6 on the two-lane portion of Rt 50, west of South Riding, where the largest new developments are proposed. Greenvest for instance, is proposing 15,000 homes in just one of the six projects contemplated for the area. Against the backdrop of the historic Mount Zion Church, where 88 acres were recently acquired by the Mt Zion Church Preservation Association in May to protect the historic area, citizens and activists attempted to articulate the enormity of the proposals to reporters.

"42,000 more houses would put nearly half a million additional car trips on roads that are already at a standstill. It would be a traffic disaster for not only Loudoun County, but for Prince William and Fairfax," noted Stewart Schwartz, Executive Director of the Coalition for Smarter Growth, whose group is participating in the campaign.

According to an analysis provided by these groups and based on figures from Loudoun County and the Virginia Department of Transportation, the 420,000 car trips are the equivalent of 14 times all daily trips on Route 50, or almost six times the daily trips on Route 7. The developments, they say, would also attract an additional 23,000 school children. They are alarmed about the annual cost of operating schools, and the costs of new fire and rescue personnel, recreational facilities and other road improvements made necessary by the developments. The group set up a Web site (www.loudounsfuture.org), which they claim outlines the scale and impacts of the proposals.

Some of the proposals include "creative" financing schemes such as special tax districts to account for some of these costs, but there is little agreement on how significant that financing is. "Sure, the extra money is going to offset a portion of the initial capital costs for buildings, roads and what not," said Gorski, "but they explicitly provide no money for ongoing maintenance and operation costs." County staff, in recommending that the bulk of the proposals not go forward, echoed this sentiment. In a Department of Planning memorandum dated October 15, staff reported that only three proposals meet the County criteria for review.

"It's not a surprise," said County Board Chairman Scott York. "We'll see what the planning commission recommends. It is my hope that they will uphold what the professional planning staff have concluded."

The twenty applications take the form of amendments to the county's Comprehensive Plan which lays out the future for the county's development and infrastructure. Loudoun is one of just a few jurisdictions in Virginia to provide the CPAM process. During most years, the county receives only two or three applications for Comprehensive Plan amendments. After this initial review from the Planning staff to see if the applications meet CPAM criteria, the Planning Commission will decide whether or not to consider the proposals. While they may follow the staff's recommendation to reject seventeen of the twenty applications, the Commission is not bound to the staff's decision.

Andrea McGimsey is an Ashburn resident working on this and other preservation campaigns in the County. Her warm smile fades when contemplating the CPAMs. "These aren't amendments, they are 3 1/2 new towns the size of Leesburg," she said. "Shouldn't amendments be for small changes, not for rewriting the growth plan for Loudoun County?"

For a place in the thick of a land use debate with implications for years to come, that may be the question of the day.

The Loudoun County Planning Commission will decide whether or not to accept the CPAMs for further review in a series of work sessions on October 25th and November 1st, with another work session November 8th if needed. Work sessions will be held at the County Government Building in Leesburg. There is no public input session during those times. Applications that are accepted for further review by the Planning Commission will then go back to Planning staff. Finally, public hearings will be held before the Planning Commission and Board of Supervisors decisions on the applications that go forward.

Planning Commission Work Sessions
Monday, October 25, 4:00 p.m. in the Board Meeting Room
Monday, November 1, 5:00 p.m. in the Board Meeting Room
(if needed)
Monday, November 8, 6:00 p.m. in the Planning Commission Conference Room
All meetings will be held at the County Government Center,
1 Harrison Street, SE, Leesburg, VA 20175,
703-777-0100