The parking lot and the street leading to Aldie Elementary School were packed with cars on the evening of May 5, and the auditorium was full, but the crowd wasn't for a school event. A group called Citizens to Save the Transition Area was presenting information about 22,000 housing units included in the proposed Comprehensive Plan Amendments (CPAMS) for the area of Loudoun County east of Route 15 and generally west of Route 659 (also called the transition area, or Dulles South). If approved, these amendments would allow 74% of the land in the transition area to be developed. The presentation painted a startling picture. One of the projects in this set of proposals, by developer Greenvest, is the largest single development ever proposed in the entire Mid-Atlantic region. Where the current plan limits developers to an average residential density of 1 unit per acre, the CPAM proposals like Greenvest's ask for 3.5 units per acre. Most of the new traffic that would result--200,000 trips a day in all--will end up on Route 50, and no funds are allocated to improve it. The CPAM proposals in total will require 11 new schools, including 2 new high schools. Area resident Laura TeKrony spoke for the citizens group. She said that like many of her neighbors, she had moved to Loudoun because she believed the current comprehensive plan would protect the community from overdevelopment. "The main reason I am involved is for our quality of life," said TeKrony. "Twenty-two thousand houses means more time spent in traffic and less time we can spend as a family. We can't image what Route 50 would be like if these developments are approved." TeKrony believes an inaccurate picture was being painted by Greenvest's direct mail marketing material, particularly concerning traffic and schools. "We moved into Loudoun so my daughter could go to Aldie Elementary, and are concerned about potential school boundary changes if these large developments are built. Overcrowding is also a real issue when you add more than 8,000 new students. At some point, there will not be enough quality teachers to keep up with the rate of growth. Growth does not pay for growth so it is inevitable that our taxes will increase to pay for the infrastructure and services."

Comprehensive plans are supposed to be long-term policy documents, according to Ed Gorski, Land Use Officer for the Piedmont Environmental Council, and are not intended to change with each election. "The development schemes would result in gridlock, higher taxes and a reduced quality of life not only for Dulles South residents, but all Loudoun residents. They should be rejected by the Board of Supervisors," said Gorski.

Gorski reviewed the current Comprehensive Plan and the specific proposal by developer Greenvest in detail. (Greenvest representatives were in the audience but did not participate in the presentations.) Greenvest's plan brings 15,000 new units in one development alone. (By comparison, South Riding at build-out will only be about 5700 units.) Greenvest could add a population greater than Leesburg's to an area the current plan intended to be a buffer for the rural west.

The Greenvest proposal includes an innovative funding mechanism, a Community Development Authority (CDA) bond, to pay for schools, roads, and construction of other capital infrastructure. This bond mechanism would require each homeowner to pay about $2000 more per year over and above taxes, estimated of Gorski. CDAs have previously been used primarily for commercial projects, like Dulles Town Center mall.

Gorski cited some concerns about CDAs. The national financial market would expect the county to be a co-guarantor for the bonds, so Loudoun's credit rating might be adversely affected, which could raise the cost of all county borrowing. It is unclear whether existing homeowners not in the new developments could be included in the area covered by the authority. "Would those who had to pay this additional cost be assured their kids would not be subjected to school boundary changes" Gorski said he asked school district officials, receiving the answer "of course not, there are no guarantees, it would be up to the school board." The Greenvest proposal alone will require 7 new schools.

The county has risks too. A potential default on the bonds by the CDA could leave county taxpayers liable for the full CDA bond amount of more than $400 million. Loudoun Supervisors Burton and Tulloch have previously voiced concerns about CDAs. In addition, more than $200 million in infrastructure costs would be allocated to the taxpayers over and above the CDAs. "Greenvest is one school short," said Gorski, "and they don't cover any yearly operating costs." To break even, he said, every single family home would need to be assessed at $950,000.

Proposed commercial development in the CPAM proposals is retail business for the foreseeable future. Gorski commented that the jobs created would be largely minimum-wage. Gorski reminded the audience that several supervisors had promised that they had no intention to add density to the transition area when they voted in 2004 to bring central sewer and water to the area. Supervisor Snow, Gorski said, stated in a press release that utility extensions are designed to be consistent with the densities allowed in the Comprehensive Plan. TeKrony introduced a slide that showed a bulldozer labeled Greenvest, leading a line of tightly spaced cars and trucks, as it pushed over a grove of trees. The title of the slide was "They're gonna pave paradise…and put up a parking lot." TeKrony and Gorski both encouraged citizens to attend meetings and hearings, write the supervisors and local papers, and inform friends and neighbors. Audience reaction was sharply divided. Some said that growth had overtaken Fairfax and was inevitable in Loudoun as well. However, many others voiced concerns about the size of these proposals, or traffic. Comments that the current plan reflected community wishes and should be upheld received the heaviest applause. More community meetings and county hearings will be held on the CPAMS in the months ahead.