The Middleburg Eccentric, 2004 to 2022, preserved in full. Our Middleburg Town Council Report continues.

Could Athens' riots come to Washington... or Richmond?

· By Mark Stys · From pages 18, 19 of the print edition

The Greek financial tragedy we have been watching has many more scenes to play, and now many are asking if the US could find itself in a similar predicament.

The failure of Greece to respond to economic problems that include too little tax revenue and too much social spending has manifested itself in growing uncertainty of the country's ability to repay its sovereign debt. Growing concern about the ratio of Greek sovereign debt to its GDP doesn't help.

Here in the US there has also been a massive increase in national debt over the last two years. Over the next decade, it is possible (or even likely) that even more debt will be added, on an unprecedented scale.

That increased debt national could be a problem in the future but, for the moment, our current level of coupon interest (the results of our Treasury auctions for US debt) have gone smoothly, and the interest rates that we are paying to finance our national debt remain low.

Those interest rates are low because of the size and strength of the US economy, and because investors see little or no inflation on the horizon. No one (or nearly no one) currently questions whether we can service our debt.

In Athens, on the other hand, protestors are quite likely to continue rioting.

Greek lifestyles are going to have to change drastically to meet the demands of an unavoidable new fiscal austerity. The paid retirement age in Greece is being raised from 56 to 71; government wages are being cut 5-20%; and there will be a crackdown on tax evasion – by most accounts a Greek national pastime.

While some sectors of the US national economy may face similar austerity in the future, our economy as a whole is dynamic and our tax levels and collection systems are not so onerous that widespread cheating is thought acceptable.

More significant, however, are similarities to the Greek situation at regional levels, with states that have high levels of debt, high unemployment, and overly generous state and local government worker compensation, benefit, and pension programs.

Here in the US, California, Michigan, Nevada, Illinois and Rhode Island are examples of states with a combination of high debt and unemployment, and long term pension issues. Thus, the question becomes, "Can the Athens's riots come to Sacramento, Lansing, Las Vegas, Springfield, or Providence?"

Closer to home, Virginia is in a stronger fiscal position. While unemployment in the Commonwealth remains painful at about 7%, it is roughly half that of some of the aforementioned states.

State budget cuts, while also painful, have served to lessen the need for Virginia to pile on more debt.

The strength of Virginia's relatively balanced tax revenue streams also help make adjustment easier and provides opportunities for the state to continue to provide businesses with incentives to start up or relocate, especially in Fairfax county.

Virginia's proximity to Washington gives us not only a great view of what is going on DC but, at times, the opportunity to influence it.

That proximity also makes the area desirable for business, not only for those that deal with or support various parts of government, but those that want to be in close proximity to where decisions are being made that effect the US and global economy.

So, while the riots like those in Greece are likely to continue (and even spread) throughout most of Southern Europe, they are unlikely to spread across the Atlantic to Washington DC, or Richmond.