North Korea and the Problem of Deterrence
Kim Jong Un, recently dubbed "Rocket Man" via Twitter, and later modified to "Little Rocket Man", by the President of the United States, was an unknown entity to most Americans until recently. The President said at a rally in Huntsville, Alabama, "We can't have madmen out there shooting rockets all over the place". Why should Kim Jong Un worry Eccentric readers? Is there anything that the average citizen can do to influence events? Is there a parallel for example with the dire situation in Europe in 1938 when Britain's Prime Minister, Neville Chamberlain, declared the Czechoslovakia situation and impending crisis, " ….A quarrel in a far away country between people of whom we know nothing". In September 1938 he signed the Munich Agreement with Adolph Hitler, declaring "Peace in our time". The rest became history. Hitler should never have been trusted, simply lying and then executing the invasion of the whole of Czechoslovakia, and then Poland on September 1, 1939, thus starting World War Two. What is the relevance of all this? There are media details that will provide readers with all you may wish to know about Kim Jong Un's nuclear capabilities and delivery systems, and the projected next developments, to likely fusion (hydrogen) weapons and more sophisticated ICBMs (intercontinental ballistic missiles). The President has been rightly criticized internationally and at home for his unsophisticated and blunderbuss approach to the North Korean threats posed to world stability, US Allies in East Asia, and indeed the United States itself. His response has not been either measured or coordinated. Merely stating the obvious in somewhat coarse undiplomatic terms does not resolve anything, when indeed an actual nuclear attack on a US ally in Asia can and would be met my catastrophic retaliation on North Korea, a totally unacceptable event for the world, let alone East Asia. The United States' nuclear capabilities are well understood in fine detail by all knowledgeable defense and intelligence analysts, and certainly Kim Jong Un's generals. This is therefore a Cold War MAD scenario – Mutual Assured Destruction, the very pivotal essence of deterrence. Should MAD fail, then North Korea is no longer, "A far away country" populated by "people of whom we know nothing". It is 121 miles from Pyongyang to Seoul, only 35 miles from Seoul to the Demilitarized Zone (DMZ) and 6,878 miles from North Korean launch sites to Washington DC. Little wonder that South Koreans live on the edge. While we go to the Gold Cup and other wonderful local events as the holidays approach, like the British at Ascot and Henley in 1939, things and lives can change overnight. My greatest concern is a combination of nuclear accident in North Korea, madness by some of Kim Jong Un's more fanatical generals, surveillance errors, computer failures that can lead to confusion and disastrous responses on all sides, the classic pervading nightmares of the Cold War until the United States and Russia created fail-safe systems and the Hot Line between Moscow and Washington DC. There are no such controls in place with North Korea, a most worrisome situation. A cyber attack on North Korean computer controlled targeting and launch systems by terrorists ill-disposed to the West could make the worst nightmare of the 1964 movie, "Dr. Strangelove", come true. This is not fanciful. Back in 2007 the Stuxnet computer virus attacked successfully Iranian centrifuges used to enrich uranium. North Korean cyber defense will be by no means ironclad. Terrorist hackers are far more real than the perverse character General Jack Ripper in the Peter Sellers (he played Dr. Strangelove) classic movie. Readers can be involved by influencing our legislators to create a bi-partisan solution based on the combined use of measured and coordinated international diplomacy, sanctions, and totally new and innovative approaches to Beijing following the recent Chinese Communist Party solidification of its politburo and Xi Jinping as its leader, the latter effectively crowned like a 21st century Chinese emperor. The last thing China wants as it moves a declared economic revolution forward is a nuclear catastrophe on its doorstep. The latter would make the consequences of General Douglas MacArthur's misguided crossing during the Korean War of the 38th parallel and foray towards the Yalu River and the Chinese border look modest in comparison. The strategic implications and military consequences will be horrendous. The United States and its global allies, and not just in Asia, must work with China to seek peaceful resolution, skillfully managing in parallel the extraordinary flexible capabilities of the United States Pacific Fleet to show via naval diplomacy the value of forward deployed and persistent naval presence, in keeping with the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea. Readers will appreciate the proverb, "Let sleeping dogs lie." This particular dog may be raised, it cannot be allowed to threaten our global well being, and its bite may awaken the great British-Australian writer, Nevil Shute's worst nightmare in his finest novel, "On the Beach", published in 1957. His book is a masterful vision of a post-apocalyptic world. Please do go to Second Chapter Books, and buy it now.