I had a blast the other night speaking for a few moments at the DOCWEEK Middleburg Film Festival at the Community Center. The film that night was called Ronnie's, and the topic was a great Jazz club. After some wicked good food and wine from Neal Wavra's Field and Main, and some live jazz from some talented young musicians from Shenandoah Conservatory, I had a few moments to answer questions onstage with festival organizer Robert Dove. I thought I would expand on those remarks here this month, following up on my words last month about Jazz clubs.

Mothers' Day 2022 will be remembered as the day First Lady Jill Biden visited the Ukraine and showed the Ukrainian people and the world that the United States stands for freedom, democracy, and upholding international law and human rights. Her meeting with Olena Zelenska, first Lady of Ukraine and wife of President Volodymyr Zelensky, was a huge triumph of grace and humanity at a time when Russian aggression and war crimes reach new heights, including the bombing of a school. The following day, Monday, May 9, in Moscow, Vladimir Putin entered a new phase of unleashing demagogic deceit and falsehoods on his people with a speech to mark the end of the war in Europe in 1945.

At the time of writing we are all holding our breath and praying for Ukrainian military success in repulsing a new Russian onslaught and the evil commission of war crimes and crimes against humanity. In the April Letter I committed to giving an assessment of where support stood from our government, and specifically the US Department of Defense. Before we look at the facts and issues be aware that for several years I have been on the record with fellow professionals in the intelligence community in assessing that the Russian Army is nothing like as capable as is perhaps commonly believed. This is across the board. However there is one worrisome major capability exception, and this is the one that concerns me most – sheer unadulterated fire power from Russia based cruise missiles and artillery, leading to the tragic loss of Ukrainian civilian and military lives, and sheer devastation of mainly civilian targets, all in violation of the Geneva Conventions.

The recent provision of US heavy long range artillery to the Ukrainian Army will hopefully redress this imbalance.

Since 2014 the United States has given Ukraine military assistance, so the argument that we have not done much before the Russian invasion is simply not accurate. One highly reliable assessment from the Soufan Center in New York City estimates that we have supplied Ukraine with more than $2.5 billion in military assistance prior to the invasion. Weapons pre the invasion included Javelin anti-tank missiles and counter mortar radars. The training and weapons that we and our allies have given Kyiv since 2014 have proven crucial to date in destroying significant Russian capabilities and inflicting what are undoubtedly massive casualties on the Russian Army. The UK and Canada have been particularly supportive in providing training. In addition several of the other key NATO allies have provided weapons, ammunition, and supplies. We have all watched more recently the steady stream of equipment ferried across the Ukrainian border. The one exception has been Germany that at one stage even banned over flight rights to Royal Air Force supply aircraft ferrying vital war materials to the Ukraine.

In addition one aspect has been crucial that is not commonly reported, though I believe that Yahoo News went public on this. Under 50 US Code the President of the United States may approve and order covert action without full public disclosure and with the approval of the appropriate Congressional Committees of Record. In effect what this entails is that US Special Forces may transfer to the CIA for paramilitary operations. In the Ukrainian scenario such training and direct support from the US has become indispensable to Ukrainian forces. Covert action training of the Ukrainians by the US and British is crucial. The latter covers multiple domains. Sniper training is a good example. The Ukrainian military of 2022 is not that of 2014. It is far superior thanks almost largely to US and UK support. No one wants to witness a repeat of what happened in Afghanistan in August, 2021, where we foolishly publicized our deadline for withdrawal. By contrast in Ukraine we and our allies have provided the Ukrainians with excellent operational security, and ways and means to evade surveillance, limiting electronic signatures, providing covert communications, and countering Russian electronic warfare.

Recall please that in an earlier Letter I emphasized the 1994 Budapest Agreement whereby the United States, the UK, and Russia agreed to guarantee Ukraine's security after the Ukraine agreed to destroy its nuclear stockpile, the third largest in the world at the time. The United States and the UK have total legitimacy in defending Ukraine.

So, has enough been enough? What we have done for Ukraine after 2014 and the Russian invasion of Crimea has been extremely beneficial as indicated above. However, where my concerns lie are in the crucial weeks leading up to the Russian invasion. I quoted Churchill in my prior Letter. "You cannot negotiate with a tiger when your head is in its mouth". Other totally well coordinated military and intelligence operations needed to be initiated well ahead of what was clearly Russian intentions – to invade and inflict catastrophic damage on the Ukraine and its people. The Biden National Security team played out the diplomatic game, which was necessary, no question. However, in parallel we needed to ramp up in my opinion one crucial capability for the Ukrainians in addition to an intensified supply chain of weapons and ammunition. This is the "T" word: "Targeting". What does this entail and why is it so critical? The sheer destruction of Ukrainian civilian targets and huge loss of civilian lives speak for themselves.

Without being immodest I have been heavily involved in TTL, tagging, tracking, and locating, and then, where necessary, targeting. The United States has extraordinarily good means to execute near or real time targeting against fixed and moving targets. While the diplomatic moves were being made, with full knowledge that Putin was playing a disingenuous game of prevarication while his Army prepared to invade the Ukraine, we should have given the Ukrainians maximum targeting support. This should have been done as discreetly as possible so that when the first Russian units crossed the Ukrainian border they could have been engaged to maximum effect. Many readers were undoubtedly aghast at the one event where a 40 miles Russian column of tanks, armored personnel carriers, and their key logistics support, were simply nothing less than sitting ducks for several days. These units in due course inflicted brutal damage and tragic Ukrainian civilian casualties. Taking down the Russian fuel supply trucks and other logistics support is a much vaunted War College principle as old as General Sir Bernard Montgomery's defeat of Rommel at the Battle of El Alamein and General George S. Patton's great Third Army victories. The reality of the Russian invasion seems to have hit the Defense Department like an ice cold shower with very positive effects. The recent ramping up of US weapon supplies for the Ukrainians could not have come sooner, and the Secretary of Defense's and Secretary of State's speeches have been explicit.

The Stingers and Javelins sent to Ukraine have challenged the US weapon supply chain and it behooves the Department of Defense to examine this aspect as a critical issue. Guns without bullets are not effective. A chain is only as strong as its weakest link and the Stinger and Javelin supply chain has been sorely tested.

If the Russians are successfully pushed back it is increasingly likely that Putin will order the use of the last of his missile inventory inside Russia to fire indiscriminately at more civilian as well as military targets. The Ukraine Security Service (SBu) estimate that Putin is running very low on weapons and ammunition. Sanctions stopped the flow of spare parts from Slovenia, Finland, and Germany. The war may be costing Putin as much as US $20 billion per day. Can he sustain this? The answer is a resounding "No". The Russian government is running out of weapons and resources. The major issue at the time of writing is what will Putin do next? In desperation will he order the use of tactical nuclear weapons in the eastern Ukraine region in order to save every kind of face possible inside Russia? The consequences of this possibility at all levels are potentially catastrophic.

Next month I will address the major issue of electronic warfare and the use of cyber in the Ukrainian war. Meanwhile let us all hope for a Ukrainian victory, the safety of President Zelensky and his leadership, and peace. NATO is emerging stronger than ever and hopefully the Russian Army will be so decimated as not to be a threat to other NATO countries for the foreseeable future.