The growing terrorist threat against the US has inspired a recent spate of public flogging of government officials in the 9/11 hearings, as the panel attempts to find personal or organizational culpability for the 9/11 attacks. We also hear the cry for restructuring the Intelligence Community and observe the building of a "Fortress America" by the Department of Homeland Security.

As disturbing, is to the cacophony of: "We could not have known", "We did the best we could", or alternatively, "We could have known if ____ ____ had done his job". Fill in the blanks according to your political persuasion.

In the terrorist war, our domestic and foreign intelligence services are superb forensic pathologists but weak in preventive care of this country. They invariably are able to reconstruct, after a terrorist event, the entire pre-event planning scenario and the identification of the culpable. However, the societal impacts of the WTC 9/11 attack or future biological and radiological attacks upon our heartland make a policy of building a homeland defense fortress and post-attack response tragically inadequate. Dale Watson, FBI assistant director in charge of counterterrorism at the time of 9/11, used the metaphor of the FBI as a soccer goalie who blocks 99 out of 100 shots, but is blamed for the one he missed. A stunningly disturbing view, but one that is rampant in the community.

We must and can "know" of impending attacks. "Knowing" means that we have significant indicators of who is involved, what is the mode of attack and where will the attacks occur. During the Cold War, American technologists and industry developed truly amazing tools for military and intelligence analysts to allow prediction of Soviet intent and activities. For example, the visual images and electronic signals we collected from orbiting and airborne platforms allowed us to monitor the "pulse" of the Soviet war machine. Unfortunately, these systems are essentially useless in the terrorist war.

We have a new challenge. Terrorists have chosen, strategically, to embed themselves in into the fabric of our society; in look and dress, in means of communication and travel, and in claiming the rights of privacy, free speech and association. They are, in our society, indistinguishable, except in their patterns of activity. We individuals, and groups of individuals exhibit unique behavioral patterns, which if captured can provide a predictive capability--Psychology 101.

The research to develop tools for prediction of terrorist activity was pursued by the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) in the pre-9/11 timeframe. The fundamental hypothesis was that by utilizing computer technologies, and access to public and classified data-sources, patterns of terrorist activity could be distinguished from normal human activity. This hypothesis was proven true. DARPA was able to develop predictive attack models of some Mid- Eastern and European terrorist groups utilizing only publicly available information. The "new sciences", the keys to unlocking the terrorist problem, were from behavioral and cognitive science-not from our cold war science base.

I was at CIA Langley on 9/11, watching television broadcasts in disbelief and horror, as the World Trade Center was destroyed and later that a plane had just struck the Pentagon. Further, I am still haunted by the words of an USAF General as he said, "Bill, the terrorists cannot defeat this nation—it is what we do to ourselves that can defeat us."

Tragically, Congress determined, with the input from civil libertarian groups and, interestingly, from some computer scientists, that these DARPA programs were "intrusive" and "Orwellian", and terminated the funding. These critical programs are gone. Some of these same groups are now protesting the Department of Homeland Security's plan to fingerprint 13 million visitors to this country this year, as a violation of civil rights. I agree with the Draconian nature of these actions and the negative economic and social implications to our Nation. However, you can't have it both ways: either you adopt the tools to separate the terrorist from law-abiding citizen before they reach the INS booth at the airport, or you place blanket suspicion upon all people because you have no way of knowing the difference…

As the cartoon character, Pogo, once opined, "We have met the enemy, and He is Us"

William Mularie, PhD, served as the Director of the Information Systems Office of the Defense Advanced Projects Agency (DARPA) from 1998 to 2001 and is currently the CEO of the Telework Consortium, a non-profit corporation located in Herndon, VA.