Looking at 2013: Middleburg Homes Sales and Values

Real Estate Reality

"Should I take the risk of buying a home in the next six months?" wonders Ms New Employee.

"Will we be able to sell our home before July, without losing our shirts, and downsize?" asks Mr. and Mrs. Empty-Nester.

Having a job in a strong economy gives potential buyers the confidence needed to buy a home. With the national election over, many are still wondering if employment will increase or decrease; will Congress and the President stop short of the Fiscal Cliff or will we see another recession; will we continue the uncertainty that has caused many people to defer home purchases?

Tom Flynn, Director of Loudoun Economic Development, is positive on Loudoun. "Loudoun's economy is picking up, we expect 3500-4000 net, new jobs in 2013," he said, "with an unemployment rate of about 4%, better than the State's, and we aren't so dependent on Defense jobs. Info technology is the driver, but we have a new goal of increasing small businesses by 5%".

Growing the Middleburg and western Loudoun economy is the object of the County's proposed Rural Economic Business Development Strategy. If approved, Flynn and Loudoun Economic Development will work with the Rural Economic Development Council and other stakeholders to enhance the local equine, winery, farm market, and tourism industries, and to link them better with the urban east; all good news for home sellers.

Relative to those housing values, "2012 was much better ," said Jeanette Newton, CEO of the Dulles Area Assoc. of Realtors, "and I expect a very good 2013 if the economy holds. The inventory of homes for sale is 18% lower than Dec. 2011 so list prices will increase."

Around Middleburg, we have not seen the high sales of 2004-07, certainly due to the economy, but also perhaps because commuting daily into DC, Roslyn, and Reston is increasingly tedious and because many new homes are going up east of us; because second home purchases are much fewer; and perhaps because potential retirees are delaying their decisions or moving away from Northern Virginia. Within five miles of Middleburg, there were 59 detached homes for sale as of Jan. 2, with the average on the market for 249 days and those at the high end, on for 310 days. Ranging from $249,500 to $15,500,000, the average list price was $2,126,785.

Mary Ann McGowan, Sales Director of Thomas and Talbot Real Estate, said, "Our office sold 59 properties in 2012, we have 137 properties for sale, 10 under contract and we have many buyers looking for the right home. I am confident that home sales will continue to increase this year and we hope to see prices continue to rebound."

So there you have it: Area employment is growing, prices and rates are low, and experts suggest optimism on your part, but a continued impasse in the national government threatens your home values. Next month: Reviewing George Mason University's economic and housing forecast and assessing the impacts on you.

Each month, this new column will focus on an item of interest to local home buyers and sellers, beginning with the broad economy, then analyzing the regional economy and its effect on our housing market. Later columns will offer the comments and recommendations of local housing industry leaders for selling and buying, for obtaining mortgages, and for remodeling. Mid and end of the year housing sales and values status reports will be presented. James Atkins is President of Homes For Leaders Real Estate, LLC, a residential real estate firm. Comment to him at jim@homesforleaders.com