And ye shall hear of wars and rumours of wars . . . Matthew 24:6

In 1898 an explosion sank the American battleship Maine in Havana harbor killing 266 of her crew of 350. We blamed it on the Spanish and declared war. Later investigation hey had nothing to do with the explosion. But we needed a pretext for a war that gave us Gitmo, the Philippines, and standing as a serious world power.

In 1915 a German submarine did sink the Cunard liner Lusitania off the coast of Ireland, killing 1,198 passengers, including 128 Americans. The Germans claimed she was ferrying munitions, a legitimate target of warn, and warned passengers not to travel on her. The British and Americans proclaimed her innocence, and her loss was a factor in bringing American public opinion around to entering World War One. Later investigation proved the Germans were correct.

In 1939 the German government reported that "Polish nationals" had attacked a German radio station in Gleiwitz and two dozen or so other places. None of it was true. The "Poles" were actually Germans. But Hitler and his advisors felt they needed a pretext for war.

In the summer of 1964, the U.S. Congress passed the "Gulf of Tonkin Resolution," following "attacks" on the US Destroyers, Turner Joy and Maddox, by North Vietnamese patrol boats. The resolution gave President Lyndon Johnson authority "take all necessary measures to repel any armed attack against the forces of the United States and to prevent further aggression" by North Vietnam. The attacks never happened. But we needed a pretext for war.

In May, the Trump administration sent the carrier Abraham Lincoln and her escorts to the Persian Gulf, sent B-52' to forward bases, ordered non-critical diplomatic staff to leave Iraq, and warned travelers. We can only speculate what else has been done or planned.

So what might set off, or serve as an excuse for setting off a war with Iran?

Ostensibly the Iranians have sabotaged at least four oil tankers near the Straits of Hormuz and supported anti-Saudi Horthy rebel drone attacks on Saudi oil facilities. That might work. Or, if not, we can always just make something up.

The President, almost as an afterthought, in a shouted answer to q question about war with Iran, as he was, literally, on his way out a door, said he "hoped not."

Shall we believe he was telling the truth, despite all our experience to the contrary?

Our NATO allies oppose a war with Iran, as do the wiser heads in Congress, both Republican and Democrat.

Both China and Russia back Iran.

War with Iran would be both protracted and deadly.

It would disrupt the world's supply of oil on a scale that would make the 1973-1974 OPEC Oil Embargo look like teatime for teddy bears.

But those who want war can always find a pretext, real or imagined.

Be wary. Tic Toc.